Aluminum is the second-most-used metal on earth. Global primary production reached roughly 74 million tonnes in 2024, with China producing about 43 million tonnes (58%). The United States produced just 670,000 tonnes — 0.9% of world output — down from over 4 million tonnes in the 1980s. Only four US smelters still operate, even partially. The US consumes roughly 6+ million tonnes annually and imports the gap, primarily from Canada (4.8 million tonnes in 2023). As of February 2025, a blanket 25% Section 232 tariff applies to all aluminum imports, including Canadian, with no exemptions. Two US-listed primary producers remain: Alcoa (AA), an integrated bauxite-to-aluminum company operating globally, and Century Aluminum (CENX), a pure smelter focused on the US and Iceland. Arconic (ARNC) was taken private by Apollo in August 2023 at $30/share and no longer trades.
At current LME prices (~$3,825/t) plus the US Midwest premium (~$0.90/lb or ~$1,985/t), domestic aluminum sells for roughly $5,800 per tonne delivered in the US. est. Alcoa's aluminum production cost is ~$2,468/t (Q1 2026), meaning the spread to US domestic smelters is over $3,300/t. Century's Q2 2026 EBITDA guidance of $315–335M annualizes to roughly $1.3B against a $6.8B market cap.
Aluminum is produced in two steps. First, bauxite ore is refined into alumina (aluminum oxide) — roughly 2 tonnes of bauxite yield 1 tonne of alumina. Second, alumina is smelted via electrolysis into aluminum metal — roughly 2 tonnes of alumina yield 1 tonne of aluminum. Smelting is extraordinarily electricity-intensive: 13,000–15,000 kWh per tonne, and electricity typically represents 30–40% of total production cost. In 2024–2025, surging alumina prices pushed alumina's share above 50% of smelting costs at some operations.
Revenue comes from selling aluminum ingot, billet, slab, and value-added alloys to fabricators who roll, extrude, or cast it into products. End uses: transportation (cars, trucks, aircraft — 25%), building & construction (24%), packaging (cans, foil — ~15%), electrical (cables, busbars — ~12%), and machinery/equipment. An EV uses 25–40% more aluminum than a conventional car. est.
For data centers, aluminum is used in server chassis, heat sinks, rack enclosures, cable trays, cooling system cold plates, structural framing, and as a substitute for copper in power busbars and cables. Aluminum has ~61% of copper's electrical conductivity but weighs only ~30% as much and costs roughly one-third per tonne.
Alcoa mines bauxite, refines alumina, and smelts aluminum. In Q1 2026: alumina segment EBITDA was negative $40M (alumina spot prices collapsed from 2025 highs), while the aluminum segment earned $694M EBITDA on realized prices of $4,209/t against costs of $2,468/t.
Century buys alumina on the open market and smelts it into aluminum at three plants (Sebree KY, Mt. Holly SC, Grundartangi Iceland). It has no mines and no alumina refineries — alumina is its single largest input cost and an unhedged exposure. When the US Midwest premium rises (as under Section 232), Century benefits disproportionately because 100% of its US output captures that premium.
Sources: Alcoa Q1 2026 press release; CENX Q1 2026 press release; International Aluminium Institute; USGS MCS 2025.
Neither Alcoa nor Century discloses an order backlog or RPO figure. Aluminum is a commodity: smelters produce metal and sell at LME + regional premium pricing. contracted
Sources: AL Circle (global demand 2024–2030); ING Research (deficit forecast); Light Metal Age (US consumption); International Aluminium Institute.
| Smelter | Owner | Nameplate (t/yr) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sebree, KY | Century (CENX) | 220,000 | Fully operational |
| Mt. Holly, SC | Century (CENX) | 230,000 | Restarting to full by Jun 2026 (+50,000t) |
| Warrick, IN | Alcoa (AA) | 269,000 | Partially curtailed (~162,000t operating) |
| Massena, NY | Alcoa (AA) | 130,000 | Fully operational |
Smelting requires 13,000–15,000 kWh per tonne. A 250,000 t/yr smelter consumes ~400 MW of continuous baseload power — comparable to a mid-sized data center campus. Data centers and aluminum smelters compete for the same scarce, cheap baseload electricity. Century's Hawesville smelter closed because power costs made it uneconomic, and the site is being converted into a data center.
Sources: USGS MCS 2025; Light Metal Age (US smelter list); CENX Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 press releases; Alcoa Q1 2026 press release; AL Circle.
| Measure | Demand side | Supply side |
|---|---|---|
| Global market balance (2024) | ~101.3M t consumed | ~100kt surplus (ING est.) est. |
| Global market balance (2025) | Growing ~3%/yr est. | ~400kt deficit forecast (ING) est. |
| Global market balance (2026) | Continued growth | ~140kt deficit (AL Circle) est. |
| China headroom to cap | — | ~2M t before 45M t cap binds |
| US production vs. consumption | ~6M+ t consumed | ~670K t produced (11% self-sufficient) |
| LME price direction | $2,400/t (2023 avg) → ~$3,825/t (Jun 2025) — up ~59% est. | |
| US Midwest premium direction | $0.22/lb (2023) → $0.90/lb (Dec 2025) — up ~4x est. | |
The global aluminum market tipped from small surplus to deficit in 2025, and the deficit is expected to persist as China's cap constrains the dominant marginal supplier. Western smelter capacity has been shrinking for a decade due to high energy costs. Demand grows ~3% annually from EVs, solar, construction, and data centers. est. LME prices have risen ~59% from their 2023 average, and the US Midwest premium has quadrupled since the 25% tariff was reimposed with no exemptions. The all-in delivered price to US buyers (~$5,800/t) versus production cost ($2,400–2,800/t) creates a spread of $3,000–3,400/t. est.
Sources: ING Research (deficit); AL Circle (2026 balance, China cap); Westmetall (LME prices); Nox Metals (Midwest premium history).
| Metric | Alcoa (AA) | Century Aluminum (CENX) |
|---|---|---|
| Business model | Integrated: bauxite → alumina → aluminum | Pure smelter: buys alumina, sells aluminum |
| Market cap (Jun 2, 2026) | $22.1B | $6.8B |
| Stock price | $83.79 | $68.77 |
| Shares outstanding | 263.9M | 99.0M |
| P/E (trailing) | 21.4× | 19.0× |
| Forward P/E | 10.7× | 6.2× |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.83B | $2.53B |
| FY2025 net income | $1.16B | $41.8M (adj: $253.8M) |
| FY2025 adj. EBITDA | $1.94B | $425.1M |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $3,193M | $649.2M |
| Q1 2026 adj. EBITDA | $595M | $231.4M |
| Q2 2026 EBITDA guidance | ~$650M (implied) est. | $315–335M |
| FY2025 aluminum production | 2,319 kmt | ~638 kmt |
| FY2025 aluminum shipments | 2,522 kmt | 647 kmt |
| Q1 2026 aluminum production | 607 kmt | ~123 kmt (shipments) |
| Realized aluminum price (Q1 2026) | $4,209/t | Not disclosed (LME + ~$602 MW premium) |
| Production cost (Q1 2026) | $2,468/t | Not disclosed |
| Cash (Mar 31, 2026) | $1,353M | $244M (+$89.5M restricted) |
| Total debt | $2,551M | $546M |
| Net debt | $1,198M | ~$213M |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | ~$1.0B est. | $183.6M |
| FY2025 capex | ~$500M est. | $98.8M |
| Smelter locations | Warrick IN, Massena NY, + Brazil, Iceland, Norway, Australia, Spain (restarting) | Sebree KY, Mt. Holly SC, Grundartangi Iceland |
| 52-week range | $25.83 – $84.38 | Not available |
| Dividend yield | 0.5% | None |
| Upcoming catalyst | San Ciprián smelter restart (Spain) | Mt. Holly full restart (Jun 2026); Oklahoma smelter (late 2026 construction start) |
Alcoa is vertically integrated and globally diversified — it benefits from high aluminum prices but its alumina segment got crushed in Q1 2026 when alumina prices fell. Century is a pure bet on aluminum smelting margins, especially the US Midwest premium. Century's forward P/E of 6.2× versus Alcoa's 10.7× reflects Century as more leveraged to the current tariff-driven premium environment.
Sources: Alcoa Q1 2026 press release; CENX Q1 2026 and Q4 2025 press releases; stockanalysis.com (market data Jun 2, 2026); Arconic privatization announcement (Aug 2023).
| Arithmetic | Alcoa (AA) | Century (CENX) |
|---|---|---|
| EV (market cap + net debt) | ~$23.3B | ~$7.0B |
| EV / FY2025 EBITDA | ~12.0× | ~16.5× |
| EV / Q1-2026 EBITDA annualized | ~9.8× | ~7.6× |
| EV / Q2-2026 EBITDA guidance annualized | ~9.0× | ~5.4× |
| EV per tonne of annual aluminum production | ~$10,050/t (2,319 kmt) | ~$10,970/t (638 kmt) |
| Price / tangible book | ~3.2× | ~5.3× |
| Net income yield (FY2025 NI / mkt cap) | 5.2% | 3.7% (adj: ~3.7%) |
Tariff sensitivity: the 25% Section 232 tariff with no exemptions is the single largest driver of the current margin expansion. If the tariff were reduced or Canada re-exempted, the Midwest premium would collapse from ~$0.90/lb back toward the historical $0.20–0.30/lb range — a ~$1,300–1,500/t reduction in US delivered price. est. At ~600,000 t/yr of US production, that would reduce Century's annual revenue by roughly $300–400M. est. Alcoa's US smelters (~290,000 t/yr operating) would see a smaller absolute impact.
LME price sensitivity: a $100/t change in LME aluminum price changes Alcoa's annual aluminum segment revenue by ~$250M and Century's by ~$65M. est.
Sources: market data Jun 2, 2026; company filings Q1 2026.