Snapshot

Five publicly traded Bitcoin miners — RIOT, MARA, CIFR, HUT, BTBT — collectively control roughly 5.7 GW of developed or pipeline power capacity across US data center sites. All five are converting portions of that capacity from cryptocurrency mining (ASIC-based, single-purpose) to dual-use AI/HPC hosting (GPU-based, leased to hyperscalers). Combined market capitalization is approximately $42 billion as of June 2, 2026. Of the five, only HUT and CIFR have signed multi-billion-dollar hyperscaler leases; RIOT has a $311M AMD contract; MARA and BTBT have zero signed AI tenant leases.

The product & how money is made

The product is powered, cooled, permitted data center capacity, measured in megawatts (MW) of critical IT load — the electricity delivered directly to servers after cooling and distribution losses. One MW of critical IT load supports roughly 125 NVIDIA H100 GPUs or 60-80 GB200 GPUs at full density. est.

These companies make money three ways:

• Bitcoin mining (legacy): Run ASICs that solve cryptographic puzzles. Revenue = BTC earned × BTC price. Post-April 2024 halving, block rewards dropped 50%. At Q1 2026 prices (~$68K BTC), all-in cost per BTC mined ranged from ~$40K (MARA owned sites) to ~$55-65K (less efficient operators). est. Combined mining revenue across these five: ~$280M/quarter in Q1 2026. est.
• AI/HPC hosting (transition): Lease powered data center shells to hyperscalers (AWS, Google/FluidStack, AMD) under 10-15 year triple-net leases. The tenant installs their own GPUs. Revenue = contracted rent per MW per month. IREN's disclosed Microsoft economics (not in this group but comparable) imply ~$9.7M annual revenue per MW at ~85% EBITDA margin.
• Power arbitrage: Some miners earn credits by curtailing power consumption during peak grid demand and selling capacity back to the grid. RIOT earned $21M in power curtailment credits in Q1 2026.

Demand

Contracted

• CIFR: Three signed hyperscale leases totaling ~600 MW. Two disclosed: a 15-year, $5.5B AWS lease for 300 MW (rent commencing Aug 2026) and a 10-year FluidStack/Google AI hosting agreement. Third lease signed Q1 2026, terms undisclosed. Combined base-term contract value: ~$8.5B. contracted
• HUT: Two signed leases totaling 597 MW. Beacon Point (Texas): 15-year, $9.8B base-term (up to $25.1B with renewals) for 352 MW with an unnamed investment-grade tenant. River Bend (Louisiana): 15-year, $7B base-term (up to $17.7B with renewals) for 245 MW with FluidStack (Google-backed). Combined: $16.8B base-term. contracted
• RIOT: AMD signed a 10-year lease at Rockdale for 50 MW contracted. Base contract value ~$311M (up to ~$1B with renewals). AMD holds expansion options to 225 MW total. contracted
• MARA: No signed AI/HPC tenant leases as of Q1 2026. Management expects to sign "multiple tenant leases by year-end" through a Starwood JV. pipeline only
• BTBT: No disclosed hyperscaler leases. One non-binding letter of intent for the North Carolina campus. Cloud services revenue ($16.8M in Q1 2026) comes from existing GPU-as-a-service operations, not hyperscale leases. pipeline only

Broader market demand

Goldman Sachs projects US data center power demand to grow 165% by 2030. est. McKinsey estimates $7 trillion of cumulative global data center investment needed by 2030. est. Hyperscalers (AWS, Microsoft, Google, Meta) have collectively guided to $200B+ of capex in 2025. Grid interconnection queues in ERCOT (Texas) and PJM (Ohio-Virginia) run 36-55 months, creating a structural bottleneck that benefits holders of existing interconnected power.

Supply

Capacity by company (all stages)

Sources: RIOT Q1 2026 10-Q, MARA Long Ridge PR (Apr 2026), CIFR Q3 2025 & Q1 2026 updates, HUT Q1 2026 10-Q & Beacon Point PR (May 2026), BTBT WhiteFiber PR & Q1 2026 10-Q.

Bottlenecks

• Grid interconnection: ERCOT and PJM interconnection queues run 36-55 months from application to energization. Miners with existing interconnection agreements — RIOT at Corsicana/Rockdale, CIFR at Colchis via AEP, HUT at Beacon Point via AEP Texas — hold scarce, time-limited positions.
• Capital: Converting a mining facility to Tier III/IV AI-grade data center costs $3-5M per MW of critical IT load (RIOT disclosed $3.6M/MW for its AMD retrofit). At 1 GW scale: $3-5B per site. est. CIFR has raised $1.3B in convertible notes plus a $2B bond; HUT is using asset-level financing; MARA assumed $785M of Long Ridge debt.
• Cooling: AI GPU racks run at 40-120 kW per rack versus 5-10 kW for Bitcoin ASICs. Liquid cooling infrastructure must be retrofitted. CIFR's AWS lease specifically includes both air and liquid cooling capacity.
• Timeline: First AI revenue for most: mid-2026 to mid-2028. CIFR's AWS rent commences Aug 2026. HUT's Beacon Point energizes Q1 2027, first data halls Q3 2027. MARA's Long Ridge AI build starts H1 2027, first capacity mid-2028.

The gap

Mining revenue/MW implied from RIOT/MARA Q1 2026 filings (total mining revenue / energized MW). AI revenue/MW from IREN's disclosed Microsoft economics (~$9.7M/MW/yr) and industry sources. est.

CoreWeave data shows 10 MW of NVIDIA H100 GPUs generates revenue equivalent to ~100 MW of Bitcoin mining. est. The April 2024 Bitcoin halving cut mining revenue per MW roughly in half, while AI lease rates have risen as hyperscaler demand has grown faster than shell supply.

The players

Prices and market caps as of June 2, 2026. Pipeline MW from company disclosures (includes all stages: operating, development, evaluation). RIOT Q1 revenue includes $33.2M data center segment (fit-out services + operating lease). BTBT holds ETH rather than BTC as primary digital asset treasury. HUT pipeline of 10.6 GW includes 6.8 GW "under evaluation" — early-stage.

Key distinctions

• HUT: Largest contracted AI lease book ($16.8B) and highest market cap ($15B). Beacon Point campus built to NVIDIA DSX reference architecture for gigawatt-scale AI. ~$655M/year stabilized NOI from Beacon Point alone. est. 6.8 GW of 10.6 GW pipeline is "under evaluation" — not contracted or in development.
• CIFR: Most advanced hyperscaler relationships (AWS and Google/FluidStack signed). First AI rent starts Aug 2026. $4.4B debt against $715M cash — most leveraged of the five. 1 GW Colchis site (energization 2028) is the largest single greenfield project.
• RIOT: Lowest power cost (3.0¢/kWh all-in) and highest power curtailment revenue ($21M/quarter). Only 50 MW contracted to AMD, but Rockdale has 700 MW of interconnected capacity and AMD holds options to 225 MW. Corsicana adds 600+ MW of AI-convertible capacity.
• MARA: Largest BTC treasury (35,303 BTC, ~$2.4B at $68K) and highest hashrate (72.2 EH/s). No signed AI leases, no AI revenue. Long Ridge acquisition ($1.5B) brings power generation but AI tenant build-out does not start until H1 2027.
• BTBT: Smallest by an order of magnitude ($691M market cap vs. $5.4B+ for others). WhiteFiber subsidiary operates GPU-as-a-service ($21.6M/quarter, 77% of revenue) — the only one of the five already generating material AI/HPC revenue, but at small scale. 200 MW NC campus is aspirational (24 MW energized). Holds ETH, not BTC. Cayman Islands incorporation.

The price of exposure

EV / Contracted AI Lease Value = enterprise value / total base-term contracted AI lease value. HUT at 0.9x: market prices the stock below the undiscounted sum of its 15-year contracted lease cash flows. CIFR at 1.8x: market pays 1.8x the base-term lease value. For RIOT, MARA, and BTBT, contracted AI lease value is too small or zero for this ratio to be meaningful.

All five are currently unprofitable on a GAAP basis (net losses driven by BTC mark-to-market, share-based compensation, and heavy capital deployment). None pays a dividend. All are diluting shareholders — RIOT's share count grew 17.6% YoY, and convertible debt across the group adds potential dilution of tens of millions of shares per company.

BTC/ETH treasury is a significant variable. MARA's 35,303 BTC (~$2.4B at $68K) = ~44% of market cap. RIOT's 15,679 BTC (~$1.1B) = ~10% of market cap. BTBT's ~155K ETH (~$327M) = ~47% of market cap. est.

What to deep-dive next

• CIFR: Third hyperscale lease (Q1 2026) — terms undisclosed. How much of the 3.2 GW pipeline is contracted vs. aspirational? Colchis 1 GW site depends on ERCOT approval — timeline risk?
• HUT: Identity of unnamed investment-grade tenant at Beacon Point. $655M/year stabilized NOI claim vs. capital costs. How does the 6.8 GW "under evaluation" pipeline convert to contracted?
• RIOT: AMD expansion option exercise timeline — 50 MW to 225 MW? Corsicana 600 MW AI-convertible capacity status?
• MARA: Long Ridge closing (expected H2 2026, needs FERC approval). Will tenant leases materialize? $2.4B debt against $514M cash and shrinking BTC treasury.
• BTBT: WhiteFiber NC-1 campus — can 24 MW scale to 200 MW with Duke Energy? $100M loan facility terms? Cayman incorporation and ETH treasury add governance/volatility dimensions.

Sources & confidence

• RIOT: Q1 2026 10-Q (filed May 2026); AMD lease PR (Jan 2026, expanded May 2026); Corsicana evaluation PR (Jan 2025).
• MARA: Q1 2026 10-Q (filed May 2026); Long Ridge acquisition PR (Apr 30, 2026).
• CIFR: Q3 2025 business update (Nov 2025); Q1 2026 business update (May 2026).
• HUT: Q1 2026 10-Q (May 2026); Beacon Point 352 MW PR (May 6, 2026); River Bend 245 MW PR (Dec 2025).
• BTBT: Q1 2026 earnings PR (May 2026); WhiteFiber NC-1 acquisition PR (2025); 8-K filing (Sep 2025).
• Industry: Goldman Sachs data center demand research (2025); IREN Microsoft lease disclosure.

Confidence: Company-specific MW, lease values, and financials from SEC filings and official press releases — high confidence. Revenue-per-MW economics for AI hosting inferred from IREN's Microsoft disclosure and industry sources — moderate confidence. Mining revenue per MW back-calculated from reported financials — moderate confidence. Demand forecasts (Goldman Sachs, McKinsey) — directional only.